We study the political consequences of a collapse in foreign demand, focusing on Weimar Germany during the Great Depression. Combining newly digitized data on local economic structure and trade exposure with electoral outcomes, we assess how the sharp export decline observed between 1928–1932 shaped political behaviour. We show that areas directly exposed to export losses did not increase support for the Nazi Party. Instead, the key mechanism operates through indirect effects: the contraction of export-oriented manufacturing reduced demand for agricultural goods, lowering prices for locally sourced food staples and spreading hardship to rural regions. In these areas, for which the Nazi Party’s pro-agriculture platform was particularly appealing, support increased significantly. Accounting for these spillovers, the export collapse explains roughly one third of the variation in the rise of Nazi support. Our findings highlight the importance of local economic linkages in transmitting trade shocks and shaping political outcomes.
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Björn Brey and Giovanni Facchini
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