海角黑料

Title: Rational Superstition: Environmental Volatility and the Origins of Magical Beliefs

Abstract: This paper provides a global quantitative test of the 'Malinowski Hypothesis,' arguing that uncertainty drives the cultural evolution of magic. We construct a Magical Intensity Index by applying NLP and LLM classification to the Folklore database, covering 1,219 traditional societies. Using daily weather volatility and medieval paleoclimate reconstructions (1100–1400 AD), we find a robust positive relationship: agricultural societies facing higher precipitation variance, droughts, and floods exhibit significantly more magical folklore. To address the endogeneity of agricultural dependence, we instrument its interaction with environmental risk using caloric suitability. Consistent with a risk coping mechanism, the effect is absent for love magic, amplified by soil texture, and mitigated by irrigation or state centralization. An epidemiological analysis of migrants reveals that agricultural magic tracks current local volatility rather than ancestral conditions, suggesting that superstition serves as a functional institutional response to risk. This framework helps explain why non-evidential beliefs remain resilient features of human culture during periods of heightened insecurity.

Jonathan is a visiting PhD student from LUISS-Guido Carli.